submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental Pound forecast for today
Sterling is focused on foreign factors and ignores domestic negative dataThe GBP is still moving according to foreign factors because of the lack of important events in the economic calendar and expectations of the virtual gathering of the world’s central bankers in Jackson Hole. Investors pay no attention to the negative factors associated with Brexit, twin deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit), and the first-ever excess of the UK national debt over £2 trillion. Forex analysts suggest that if the euro breaks higher than $1.2 and moves on towards $1.25, the sterling will easily reach $1.35.
The options market is surprisingly stable without any response to Brexit issues. A year ago, the pound volatility will higher than that of the Mexican peso, and the market was shaken. The sterling volatility over the next 3 months is below the average for the last 5 years and slightly above the euro volatility. Taking into account that the EU-UK talks are close to the critical point, the market stability looks surprising. It suggests that either investors are confident in a soon Brexit deal or they do not expect that any of the parties will add uncertainty. However, a 60% likelihood of a Brexit deal doesn’t rule out a 40% chance of a no-deal divorce. It seems that after any failure in the previous negotiations, investors expect a breakthrough in each next round.
According to JP Morgan, a no-deal Brexit will contract the UK GDP by 5.5%, and the UK economy is already in a recession. There are several bearish drivers for the sterling. The twin deficits, the Conservatives’ discontent with the growth of the UK national debt, the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, and the potentially vulnerable labor market due to the expiration of the financial aid package in October. According to Bloomberg, the programs, which have protected four million jobs should end in October. That could hit the labor market, slow down the GDP in the fourth quarter, and result in a boost of the UK QE by £100 billion.
Dynamics of UK jobs supported by state programs
So, the pound has many flaws. However, it has caught the tailwinds and responds to the increase in the global risk appetite and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the US dollar through the average inflation targeting. Nonetheless, Jerome Powell may not announce such a plan in Jackson Hole. Furthermore, the S&P500 may not be close to the all-time highs for a long time. According to the majority of 200 experts surveyed by Reuters, global stock indexes at the end of 2020 are likely to be lower than the levels hit in February, which means a correction down from the current levels.
Dynamics of GBP/USD and S&P 500
Source: Trading Economics
In my opinion, investors ignore the UK's negative domestic factors because they are focused on Powell’s upcoming speech. If he announces the Fed’s average inflation targeting, the GBP/USD may break through the August highs and continue rallying up to 1.337 and 1.35. Otherwise, the sterling could go down below the support at 1.315.
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